Market outlook for 2012
BlackRock's Investment Institute has published its investment forecasts for 2012. In summary their views are that it will be a year of divergence in investment markets. To live divergently in 2012, five points are worth remembering: Expect a decoupling of fast-growing emerging economies and the developed world. Emerging market assets would outperform in this "Divergence" scenario. The odds of a "Nemesis" crisis are much lower, but still uncomfortably high. The biggest potential trigger is an escalating European debt crisis. Investors will scrounge for income in a risky world with ultra-low interest rates. A global retirement boom and longer life expectancies underpin this trend. Market volatility is here to stay, magnified by elections and power handovers in key countries. Politics matter more than ever in investing. Inflation is unlikely to pick up. This market consensus view could be upended by a global monetary easing or a run-up in commodities prices.
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